Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield stands at 4.95 percent today, edging slightly lower compared to last week when it sat at 4.97 percent. This marks a modest retreat at the long end of the curve. The yield has trended downward over the past month as well, having been at 4.98 percent four weeks ago. Despite these small declines, the 30-year rate remains near the highest levels seen in recent weeks.

The broader Treasury curve shows a mixed picture compared to last week, with most maturities ticking higher while the very shortest end moved lower. The 4-week rate fell from 3.69 to 3.66 percent, and the 6-week rate edged up only slightly to 3.71 from 3.70. Moving further out, the 3-month rate climbed from 3.79 to 3.85 percent, and the 6-month rate rose more noticeably from 3.81 to 3.98 percent. The 1-year rate jumped from 3.84 to 4.04 percent. Medium-term maturities also moved higher, with the 2-year at 4.24 percent, the 5-year at 4.29 percent, and the 10-year at 4.51 percent. The 20-year rate held steady at 4.97 percent, unchanged from last week.

Looking at how rates have shifted over the past month, the most dramatic moves have occurred at the front end of the curve. The 3-month rate has climbed from 3.70 to 3.85 percent over the past month, while the 6-month rate jumped from 3.77 to 3.98 percent. The 1-year rate rose from 3.79 to 4.04 percent, and the 2-year climbed from 3.95 to 4.24 percent. The 3-year moved from 3.96 to 4.25 percent, and the 5-year climbed from 4.07 to 4.29 percent. The 7-year has risen from 4.24 to 4.39 percent, and the 10-year moved from 4.42 to 4.51 percent. Long-term rates tell a different story, with the 20-year holding flat at 4.97 percent and the 30-year actually declining slightly from 4.98 to 4.95 percent.

The curve currently maintains an inverted shape at the very short end, with the 4-week rate at 3.66 percent sitting below the 2-year rate at 4.24 percent. Beyond the short end, the curve slopes upward through the middle maturities before flattening out toward the long end. The 20-year and 30-year rates are nearly identical at 4.97 and 4.95 percent respectively, creating a flat spot at the long end. Compared to last week, the inversion between the 4-week and 2-year has narrowed slightly as the short end pulled back while the 2-year climbed. Over the past month, the curve has steepened considerably in the front-to-middle section, with rates rising sharply across maturities from 3 months through 7 years, while the long end has remained relatively stable or declined slightly.