Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield stands at 4.95 percent Thursday, slipping two hundredths of a percentage point from last week's 4.97. Looking at the full curve, most maturities have moved lower over the past week. The 10-year fell to 4.45 from 4.47, the 20-year dropped to 4.96 from 4.98, and the 7-year came in at 4.31 versus 4.32. The 2-year and 5-year were unchanged at 4.05 and 4.18 respectively. Short-term rates held steady as well, with the 3-month rate staying at 3.78 and the 1-year ticking up just three hundredths to 3.85 from 3.82.

Shifting to the broader curve compared to one month ago, the middle portion of the yield curve has climbed noticeably higher. The 2-year rose to 4.05 from 3.88, a notable move of 17 hundredths. The 5-year climbed to 4.18 from 4.02, gaining 16 hundredths over the month. The 1-year increased to 3.85 from 3.72, a rise of 13 hundredths. The 7-year moved to 4.31 from 4.20, up 11 hundredths. The 10-year ticked up to 4.45 from 4.40, a more modest five hundredths. At the front end, the 3-month rate rose to 3.78 from 3.68, an increase of 10 hundredths. Long-term yields barely moved, with the 20-year at 4.96 compared to 4.97 a month ago and the 30-year at 4.95 versus 4.98.

The yield curve shows a clear upward tilt from the front to the long end. The 3-month rate of 3.78 sits well below the 2-year at 4.05, continuing the inversion between these maturities. The curve steepens as you move out, with the 10-year at 4.45 above the 2-year by 40 hundredths. The long end clusters tightly, with the 20-year at 4.96 and the 30-year at 4.95, nearly identical. Over the past month, the curve has steepened in the middle section while the long end has flattened. The 2-year to 10-year spread has widened compared to a month ago as medium-term yields rose more than long-term yields.