Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield settled at 5.01 percent on Friday, climbing two one-hundredths of a percent from last week's close at 4.99 percent. This marks the first time the benchmark long-term rate has crossed above the 5 percent threshold since late May. The 20-year maturity also moved higher, reaching 5.03 percent compared to 4.98 percent a week ago. Short-term rates remained relatively stable, with bills and notes maturing within six months holding mostly steady near 3.70 to 3.81 percent.

Yields rose broadly across the middle and long end of the curve compared to last Friday. The 10-year rate moved up to 4.55 percent from 4.45 percent, while the 7-year climbed to 4.41 percent from 4.27 percent. The 5-year reached 4.29 percent and the 3-year hit 4.22 percent, both posting gains of roughly 16 one-hundredths of a percent. The 2-year rate increased to 4.17 percent from 3.98 percent, a notable jump of 19 one-hundredths. Even the 1-year maturity shifted higher to 3.88 percent from 3.79 percent.

Looking back one month, rates have moved substantially higher across the entire curve. The 2-year has climbed from 3.78 percent to 4.17 percent, a significant 39 one-hundredths of a percent increase over 30 days. The 3-year rose to 4.22 percent from 3.80 percent, and the 5-year moved to 4.29 percent from 3.92 percent. The long end has also steepened considerably, with the 10-year jumping to 4.55 percent from 4.31 percent and the 30-year reaching 5.01 percent from 4.91 percent. Even shorter maturities have shifted higher, as the 1-year moved from 3.67 percent to 3.88 percent over the same period.

The yield curve remains inverted, with the 2-year rate at 4.17 percent sitting below the 10-year rate at 4.55 percent. This inversion has actually narrowed compared to last week, when the gap between these two maturities was wider at 47 one-hundredths of a percent. The curve shows a relatively flat section from the 4-week through 6-month maturities, all clustered between 3.71 and 3.81 percent. From the 1-year through 7-year range, rates climb steadily from 3.88 percent to 4.41 percent. The curve then steepens notably between the 7-year and 20-year maturities, where yields jump from 4.41 percent to 5.03 percent. This steep late-curve segment is a defining characteristic of the current yield environment compared to both last week and one month ago, when that long-end section was considerably flatter.