Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield came in at 4.97 today, a fractional decline from 4.98 last week. Over the past month, this maturity has moved higher from 4.92, representing a modest but steady climb. The shorter end of the curve showed the most pronounced week-over-week shifts, with the 3-month rate jumping to 3.78 from 3.69 just a week ago. Investors saw the 2-year yield climb to 4.05 compared to 3.99 the prior week.

Across the maturity spectrum, most rates moved higher compared to last week. The 10-year rose to 4.47 from 4.45, while the 5-year climbed to 4.18 from 4.15. The 7-year reached 4.32 versus 4.29 previously. Even the shortest bills held steady or ticked up, with the 4-week rate holding at 3.71 and the 1-year at 3.82. The short end of the curve has clearly strengthened relative to recent weeks.

Looking back a month, the curve has shifted substantially upward at most maturities. The 5-year climbed to 4.18 from 3.96, the largest monthly move in percentage terms. The 2-year rose to 4.05 from 3.83, while the 10-year moved to 4.47 from 4.34. The 3-month rate also increased, reaching 3.78 versus 3.69 a month prior. Nearly every maturity is trading higher than it did 30 days ago, reflecting a broad-based curve shift higher.

The yield curve continues to show an inverted shape at the shorter end, with the 2-year yielding more than the 5-year today. This inversion persists compared to last week, though the gap has narrowed slightly as the 2-year rose faster than the 5-year. The long end of the curve remains relatively flat, with the 20-year at 4.98 and the 30-year at 4.97, nearly identical. Over the past month, the curve has steepened in the middle section while maintaining its inverted status closer to the front.