Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield held steady at 4.99 percent on Monday, unchanged from Friday's close. Shorter-term rates moved higher, with the 2-year climbing to 4.05 percent from 3.98 percent, a notable jump of 7 basis points. The 3-year rate rose to 4.09 percent compared to 4.06 percent at the end of last week. The front end of the curve saw increases across the board, with the 3-month rate jumping to 3.78 percent from 3.69 percent.

Looking at the broader curve, most maturities shifted upward since Friday. The 5-year reached 4.18 percent and the 7-year climbed to 4.32 percent, both gaining 5 basis points. The 10-year ticked up to 4.47 percent from 4.45 percent. Rates from 1 year out through 20 years all moved higher, with the increases ranging from 1 to 7 basis points. Only the shortest maturities of 4 weeks and 6 weeks remained unchanged at 3.72 and 3.71 percent respectively.

Over the past month, rates have risen substantially across all maturities. The most dramatic moves came in the 2-year and 3-year segments, which jumped 33 and 36 basis points to 4.05 and 4.09 percent. The 1-year rate climbed 18 basis points to 3.83 percent. Longer maturities also increased, with the 10-year rising 21 basis points to 4.47 percent and the 30-year moving up 11 basis points to 4.99 percent. The middle portion of the curve saw the largest monthly gains, while the shortest and longest ends showed more modest increases.

The yield curve remains in a steepening pattern as short-term rates continue to rise faster than long-term rates. The 2-year to 10-year spread has widened compared to both last week and a month ago. The 3-month rate at 3.78 percent sits above the 6-month rate at 3.79 percent, creating a slight inversion in that segment. The 30-year at 4.99 percent matches the 20-year at 4.99 percent, flattening that portion of the curve. Overall, the curve has shifted higher and grown steeper over the past month, with the most pronounced moves occurring in the 2 to 7 year range.