Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield fell to 4.98 today, down from 5.10 a week ago. This represents a notable drop at the long end of the market, with the rate declining by 12 hundredths of a percent over the week. The long-dated bonds have seen the biggest improvements, while shorter maturities showed more modest changes. Yesterday, the 30-year had closed at 5.01.

Across the curve today, rates moved lower at most maturities compared to last week. The 2-year rate dropped from 4.08 to 3.99, while the 10-year fell from 4.57 to 4.45. The middle of the curve showed similar declines, with the 5-year at 4.15 and the 7-year at 4.29, both lower than where they traded a week prior. Short-term rates held relatively steady, with the 3-month at 3.69 and the 1-year at 3.80.

Looking back one month, yields have moved higher across the curve. The 30-year sits at 4.98 compared to 4.93 on April 16, while the 10-year has climbed from 4.32 to 4.45. The shift is more pronounced in the middle portion of the curve, where the 3-year rose from 3.80 to 4.07 and the 5-year moved from 3.91 to 4.15. Short-term rates have also increased over the month, with the 2-year at 3.99 versus 3.78 a month ago and the 1-year at 3.80 compared to 3.69.

The yield curve today shows a mostly upward slope from the short end to the long end, though the front portion remains somewhat flat. The shortest maturities cluster around 3.69 to 3.80, then rates climb through the middle maturities reaching into the 4 percent range by the 2-year. From there, the curve continues its upward trajectory through 4.45 at the 10-year and peaks near 4.98 at the 30-year. Compared to last week, the curve shifted down more at the long end, slightly changing its overall shape. Over the past month, the curve has moved higher and become somewhat flatter, with intermediate maturities rising faster than the very shortest and longest ends.