Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.14 percent Monday, rising from 4.98 percent one week ago. This represents a notable weekly gain for the longest maturity on the curve. The 10-year rate stood at 4.61 percent, up from 4.42 percent last Monday. These moves suggest upward pressure on long-term borrowing costs over the past week.

The broader curve shifted higher across most maturities compared to last week. The 2-year rate rose to 4.07 percent from 3.95 percent, while the 5-year moved to 4.27 percent from 4.07 percent. The short end of the curve behaved differently, with the 3-month rate declining to 3.68 percent from 3.70 percent. Meanwhile, the 6-month rate held steady at 3.77 percent.

Looking back 30 days, rates have moved higher across nearly the entire curve. The 2-year has climbed from 3.84 percent to 4.07 percent over the past month. The 10-year has risen from 4.34 percent to 4.61 percent during the same period. The short end tells a different story, with the 3-month ticking down slightly from 3.72 percent a month ago. The 20-year rate has increased from 4.89 percent to 5.14 percent over the month.

The yield curve remains inverted between the 3-month and 2-year maturities, a pattern that has persisted compared to last week. The difference between the 30-year and 10-year rates has narrowed from 56 basis points a week ago to 53 basis points now. Comparing to 30 days ago, the curve has flattened in the middle and long portions as longer-term rates rose more sharply than shorter-term ones. The 20-year and 30-year rates are now equal at 5.14 percent, a notable development that did not exist last week when the 20-year sat at 4.97 percent.