Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury rate reached 5.12 percent today, marking a notable increase compared to last week's level of 4.95 percent. This weekly jump of 0.17 represents one of the more significant movements in the long end of the curve recently. The yield has climbed steadily over the past several days, reaching its current level by the end of the trading session.

Looking at the broader curve, most maturities shifted higher compared to one week ago, with the intermediate and longer portions showing the most pronounced moves. The 2-year rate rose to 4.09 from 3.90 last Friday, while the 5-year climbed to 4.26 compared to 4.02 a week earlier. The 10-year stands at 4.59, up from 4.38 last week. Meanwhile, the very short end of the curve remained relatively stable, with the 4-week and 3-month rates holding steady around 3.69 to 3.71 percent. The 1-year rate moved from 3.75 to 3.82 over the same period.

Over the past month, rates across the entire curve have moved higher, with the long end showing the most significant gains. The 30-year rate has risen from 4.91 percent one month ago to its current level of 5.12 percent, an increase of 0.21. The 6-month rate moved from 3.73 to 3.77 over the same timeframe. The 1-year yield climbed from 3.72 to 3.82, while the 2-year rose from 3.84 to 4.09. Even the shorter maturities like the 4-month rate have ticked higher, moving from 3.71 to 3.76 over the past 30 days.

The yield curve has steepened considerably, with longer-term rates rising faster than shorter-term ones over both the past week and the past month. Notably, the 20-year rate at 5.14 is now higher than the 30-year rate at 5.12, creating a slight inversion in that portion of the curve. One month ago, the 30-year sat above the 20-year, so this relationship has reversed. The short end of the curve between 4 weeks and 3 months remains relatively flat around 3.69 to 3.71, showing little change week-over-week. The gap between the shortest maturities and the 30-year has widened meaningfully, reflecting the broader upward shift in longer-term rates over recent weeks.