Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.03% on Wednesday, up from 4.94% one week ago. This marks the highest level for the long bond in recent weeks. The move reflects continued pressure on longer-term rates even as some shorter maturities held steady.

Rates across the curve all moved higher compared to last week, with the middle section seeing the biggest shifts. The 5-year yield rose to 4.12% from 3.99%, while the 7-year climbed to 4.28% from 4.17%. The 2-year and 3-year both ticked up to 3.98% and 4.00% respectively, each gaining about 11 basis points. Further out, the 10-year reached 4.46% and the 20-year hit 5.03%, each moving 10 to 11 basis points higher. Near-term bills showed more modest movement, with the 4-week and 6-week yields holding at 3.71%, up just 1 basis point, while the 3-month rate remained at 3.69%.

Looking back a month, yields have generally moved higher across most maturities. The 30-year has risen 12 basis points from 4.91%, while the 20-year is up 12 basis points from 4.91%. The 1-year yield stands out with a notable 11 basis point increase, moving to 3.79% from 3.68%. The 2-year is 17 basis points higher at 3.98% compared to 3.81% a month ago. Shorter-term bills have shown more mixed movement, with the 4-week actually declining 3 basis points and the 3-month falling 1 basis point, while the 4-month has risen 6 basis points.

The yield curve has steepened noticeably compared to both last week and a month ago. The gap between the 2-year and 30-year has grown to about 1.05%, showing a steeper curve than recently. The curve remains inverted at the very short end, with the 4-week and 6-week yielding slightly more than the 2-month and 3-month, but this inversion has narrowed from last week. From 2-year onward, the curve tilts sharply upward with the long end now exceeding 5%. Over the past month, the curve has shifted higher overall while maintaining its general shape, with the middle and long portions moving up more aggressively than the very short end.