Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 4.98 percent on Monday, down from 5.02 percent one week ago. This represents a notable pullback for the longest maturity, reversing part of the climb seen in recent weeks. The 20-year rate fell in lockstep, moving from 5.01 percent last Monday to 4.97 percent today. Despite this weekly decline, the long end of the curve remains elevated compared to levels seen earlier in the year.

The broader curve shifted lower across most maturities compared to last week. The 10-year dropped to 4.42 percent from 4.45 percent, while the 7-year fell to 4.24 percent from 4.26 percent. The 5-year decreased to 4.07 percent, and the 3-year slipped to 3.96 percent from 3.98 percent. The 2-year fell to 3.95 percent from 3.90 percent, a larger move than most intermediate maturities. The short end held relatively steady, with the 4-week bill unchanged at 3.71 percent and the 3-month rate at 3.70 percent, just one basis point lower than last Monday.

Looking back one month, the curve has moved notably higher. The 30-year has risen from 4.91 percent in late March to its current 4.98 percent. The 10-year has climbed from 4.35 percent to 4.42 percent over the same period. The most pronounced monthly shifts occurred in the intermediate section, where the 2-year jumped from 3.82 percent to 3.95 percent and the 3-year rose from 3.85 percent to 3.96 percent. The 5-year increased from 3.97 percent to 4.07 percent. Even the shorter end moved up, with the 4-month rate rising from 3.71 percent to 3.77 percent and the 1-year climbing from 3.71 percent to 3.79 percent.

The curve today maintains a steady upward slope from 3.69 percent at the shortest maturity out to 4.98 percent at 30 years, with no inversions present. Compared to last week, the entire curve has shifted down by up to four basis points, with the longer maturities showing the most relief. Over the past month, the curve has steepened as intermediate maturities have risen more sharply than the long end. The spread between the 2-year and 30-year has narrowed slightly month-over-month, indicating the recent moves have been concentrated in the middle portion of the curve.