Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield came in at 4.94 percent on Wednesday, dropping from 4.98 percent a week earlier. The decline marks a notable shift for the longest maturity, as rates have moved lower across the board compared to last week. Investors have been watching the long end closely as the market adjusts to recent economic data and policy signals.

Looking at the broader yield curve, most maturities moved lower over the past week. The 2-year fell from 3.92 percent to 3.87 percent, while the 5-year dipped from 4.05 percent to 3.99 percent. The 10-year dropped to 4.36 percent from 4.42 percent last Wednesday. Even the 20-year eased to 4.92 percent, down from 4.97 percent. The short end was mixed, with the 4-week rising slightly to 3.70 percent and the 6-month inching up to 3.74 percent, while the 1-year ticked down to 3.73 percent.

Over the past month, the curve has shifted in an uneven way. The short end has come down, with the 4-week falling from 3.73 percent to 3.70 percent and the 3-month dropping from 3.73 percent to 3.69 percent. Further out, the picture is different. The 2-year has risen from 3.84 percent a month ago to 3.87 percent today, and the 5-year has climbed from 3.96 percent to 3.99 percent. The 10-year sits at 4.36 percent, up from 4.33 percent, and the 30-year has moved up to 4.94 percent from 4.89 percent.

The curve remains inverted at the short end, with the 3-month yield above the 1-year and 2-year rates. The 30-year at 4.94 percent sits well above the 2-year at 3.87 percent, highlighting the steep slope at the longer end. Compared to a month ago, the inversion between the 2-year and 3-month has narrowed slightly, while the gap between the 2-year and 30-year has widened, showing the front end has stabilized while longer rates have climbed.