Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury rate finished at 4.98 percent on Tuesday, down slightly from 5.02 percent on Monday but still four basis points higher than last week's close of 4.94 percent. This long-term rate has been hovering near the five percent mark, showing modest upward pressure compared to the prior week. The 10-year rate dropped two basis points to 4.43 percent, while the 20-year fell three basis points to 4.98 percent. These moves suggest a pause in the upward push at the long end after recent gains.

The broader curve shifted lower across most maturities compared to Monday's readings. The 2-year rate fell two basis points to 3.93 percent and the 3-year slipped one basis point to 3.97 percent. In the middle part of the curve, the 5-year held steady at 4.08 percent while the 7-year dipped one basis point to 4.25 percent. Shorter-term rates were mixed with the 3-month holding at 3.69 percent and the 1-year dropping one basis point to 3.77 percent. Looking at the full week, the 5-year and 3-year saw the biggest increases, each climbing 11 basis points since last Tuesday, while the 2-year gained 9 basis points over the same period.

Over the past 30 days, rates have moved higher across most of the curve with the middle section showing the most pronounced shifts. The 5-year is up five basis points from 4.03 percent one month ago, and the 7-year has risen four basis points to 4.25 percent. The 10-year has edged up four basis points from 4.39 percent in late March while the 30-year has climbed four basis points over the same stretch. Nearer maturities have generally declined over the month, with the 1-year falling four basis points to 3.77 percent and the 6-month dropping three basis points to 3.75 percent.

The curve remains inverted at the short end, with the 2-year sitting 24 basis points above the 3-month rate. The rest of the curve slopes upward from the 3-month through the 30-year, a pattern that has strengthened compared to both last week and 30 days ago. The 20-year and 30-year are now both at 4.98 percent, flattening that segment of the curve, while the middle years between 3 and 7 years have seen the steepest upward shifts over the past week.