Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield held steady at 4.91 percent on Friday, matching last week's level exactly. This flat performance at the long end came as other maturities moved lower during the week. The 10-year yield fell to 4.31 percent from 4.35 percent a week earlier, dropping 4 basis points. The 7-year rate also declined to 4.12 percent from 4.17 percent over the same period. Short-term rates showed modest declines as well, with the 3-month bill easing to 3.69 percent from 3.71 percent the prior Friday.

Across the broader curve, yields retreated from last week's levels at nearly every maturity point. The 3-year rate fell to 3.80 percent from 3.88 percent, marking one of the larger weekly shifts. The 5-year dropped to 3.94 percent from 3.99 percent, while the 2-year settled at 3.81 percent compared to 3.84 percent the previous week. The 1-year maturity also declined to 3.70 percent from 3.72 percent. The only unchanged yields came at the very shortest end, with the 4-week and 6-week bills holding near the previous week's levels at 3.67 and 3.69 percent respectively.

Looking back 30 days, the curve has shifted dramatically higher. The 2-year yield has risen to 3.81 percent from 3.38 percent in late February, a significant 43 basis point increase over the month. The 5-year climbed to 3.94 percent from 3.51 percent during the same span. The 10-year yield moved up to 4.31 percent from 3.97 percent, gaining 34 basis points. The 30-year rate reached 4.91 percent from 4.64 percent, a 27 basis point advance. Even the shortest maturities moved higher, with the 3-month bill at 3.69 percent versus 3.67 percent a month prior. The middle of the curve showed the most pronounced month-over-month movement, with yields rising substantially more at the 2-year through 7-year maturities than at either end.

The curve's shape has steepened considerably over the past month. A month ago, the spread between the 30-year and 3-month rates was just under 1 percent. Today that gap has widened to about 1.22 percent. The long end has risen faster than the short end, creating a more pronounced upward slope. Compared to a week ago, the curve also steepened slightly, with the 30-year to 3-month spread moving from roughly 1.2 percent to 1.22 percent. The gap between the 10-year and 2-year yields sits at about 50 basis points, showing a moderate positive slope where longer-term debt pays higher rates than shorter-term obligations. This represents a shift from the flatter configuration seen a month earlier, with all maturities now trading at notably higher levels than they were in late February.