Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield held steady at 4.9 percent on Tuesday, matching where it closed on Monday but ticking slightly higher compared to last week when it sat at 4.88 percent. This benchmark long-term rate has remained firmly anchored above the 4.8 percent level for the past several sessions, reflecting continued upward pressure on the longest end of the curve. The 20-year yield also printed at 4.9 percent, making it briefly identical to the 30-year before a tiny one basis point gap emerged. Overall, yields at the long end of the curve moved modestly upward over the past week, adding roughly 2 to 3 basis points to rates beyond the 10-year maturity.

The broader Treasury curve showed a mixed pattern when comparing Tuesday's rates to those from last Tuesday. The shortest maturities, including the 4-week and 6-week bills, actually declined by 5 and 3 basis points respectively, settling at 3.68 and 3.7 percent. The 2-month rate was unchanged at 3.72 percent while the 3-month and 6-month tenors edged higher by a single basis point. The middle portion of the curve from the 1-year through 10-year maturity saw consistent upward movement, with increases ranging from 2 basis points at the 2-year to 3 basis points at the 5-year, 7-year, and 10-year points. The 1-year rate was the notable exception, holding flat at 3.68 percent for the second consecutive week.

Looking back 30 days to late February, the curve has shifted dramatically higher across nearly all maturities. The most pronounced changes occurred in the 2-year and 3-year maturities, which jumped from 3.43 and 3.47 percent to 3.81 and 3.82 percent, representing increases of roughly 38 basis points each. The 5-year and 7-year also moved substantially higher, climbing from 3.61 and 3.81 percent to 3.95 and 4.13 percent. The 10-year climbed from 4.04 to 4.33 percent, a gain of about 29 basis points. The longest maturities showed more modest monthly increases, with the 20-year rising from 4.63 to 4.9 percent and the 30-year advancing from 4.7 to 4.9 percent. Even the shortest bills moved, with the 4-week declining from 3.72 to 3.68 percent while the 6-month climbed from 3.62 to 3.73 percent.

The Treasury curve remains upward sloping from the 4-week bill through the 30-year bond, with no inversions present at any maturity pairing. The gap between the 2-year and 10-year widened slightly from 51 basis points last week to 52 basis points this week. The spread between the 10-year and 30-year held constant at 57 basis points, suggesting the longer end has not seen disproportionate selling pressure relative to the middle of the curve. Comparing the current shape to one month ago, the entire curve has steepened noticeably, with the gap between the 2-year and 30-year expanding from 127 basis points in late February to 109 basis points today. The 1-year rate at 3.68 percent now sits below the 3-month at 3.71 percent, a modest inversion that did not exist a month ago when the 1-year was trading 17 basis points below the 3-month.