Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield came in at 4.89% Monday, down 2 basis points from last week's 4.91%. The long end of the curve showed a modest decline over the past week, with the 20-year dropping 3 basis points and the 10-year falling 1 basis point. Short-term rates held relatively steady, with the 4-week maturity easing 2 basis points while most other tenors from 2 months through 1 year were essentially flat compared to Friday. The overall tone was one of slight cooling at the longer end of the market.

Looking across the full curve, the 2-month and 3-year rates each moved 3 basis points higher, representing the biggest single-week gains at those maturities. The 2-year edged up 2 basis points to 3.84%, while the 5-year ticked up 1 basis point to 3.98%. The 10-year sits at 4.34%, down from 4.35% a week earlier, and the 20-year at 4.89% compared to 4.92% last Monday. Most of the curve showed little movement, with several maturities unchanged from Friday's levels.

Over the past month, yields have climbed significantly across the board. The 1-year rate jumped 22 basis points from 3.50% to 3.72%, while the 2-year surged 41 basis points to 3.84%. The 3-year rose 43 basis points and the 5-year climbed 39 basis points, reaching 3.98%. The 10-year moved from 4.03% to 4.34%, a 31 basis point increase, and the 30-year climbed from 4.70% to 4.89%, gaining 19 basis points. The short end of the curve has seen the most dramatic month-over-month rise, with rates between 1 year and 5 years all up by roughly 40 or more basis points.

The curve remains steeply upward-sloping, with rates rising from 3.72% at the 4-week maturity to 4.89% at the 30-year point. The 1-year to 2-year segment shows the steepest single jump in the curve at 12 basis points. Comparing the curve shape to a month ago, the 2-year to 10-year spread has narrowed from 60 basis points to 50 basis points, indicating a modest flattening in that segment. The long end has steepened relative to the short end compared to 30 days ago, as the 30-year is now only 19 basis points higher than where it was a month ago while the 2-year is 41 basis points higher.