Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 4.90 percent on Friday, climbing 13 basis points from last Friday's 4.77 percent. This was the highest level since rates reached 4.88 percent yesterday, marking the longest maturity's strongest weekly gain in some time. The rate has been on a steady incline this week, moving from 4.88 percent Thursday to 4.89 percent Thursday before settling at 4.90 percent Friday.

The broader curve shifted higher across nearly all maturities compared to last Friday. The 10-year yield rose to 4.28 percent from 4.15 percent, while the 2-year climbed to 3.73 percent from 3.56 percent. The 5-year reached 3.87 percent versus 3.72 percent a week ago, and the 7-year moved to 4.07 percent from 3.93 percent. Short-term rates were relatively stable, with the 4-week holding at 3.75 percent and the 3-month edging up to 3.72 percent from 3.69 percent. Even the 1-year ticked higher to 3.66 percent from 3.55 percent, showing a broad-based increase across the curve.

Looking back 30 days to late January, the curve has shifted upward at the short end. The 2-year has risen sharply to 3.73 percent from 3.52 percent, while the 1-year climbed to 3.66 percent from 3.48 percent. The 3-year moved to 3.74 percent from 3.60 percent. Medium-term maturities saw more modest moves, with the 5-year at 3.87 percent versus 3.79 percent a month ago. The longer end showed smaller changes, as the 10-year sits at 4.28 percent compared to 4.26 percent and the 30-year barely moved to 4.90 percent from 4.87 percent.

The curve remains inverted at the short end, with the 2-year yield at 3.73 percent sitting above the 1-year at 3.66 percent. The 3-month bill at 3.72 percent also sits above the 1-year, adding to the inversion. Moving outward, the curve steepens gradually from 3.87 percent at the 5-year through 4.28 percent at the 10-year, then flattens slightly toward 4.90 percent at the 30-year. The inversion pattern has persisted compared to last week and a month ago, though the gap between the inverted short end and the steeper middle portion has widened noticeably over the past month.