Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield settled at 4.88 on Thursday, marking a notable rise of 14 basis points from the 4.74 seen last Thursday. This long-term rate has gradually moved higher over the past month as well, climbing from 4.85 in late January. The 20-year yield came in at 4.86, putting it just slightly below the 30-year rate. The long end of the curve has shown consistent upward pressure in recent weeks.

Shorter maturities also moved higher today, with the 10-year reaching 4.27 compared to 4.13 last Thursday. The 2-year rate climbed to 3.76 from 3.57 a week earlier, representing one of the larger weekly increases in the curve. The 5-year moved from 3.72 to 3.88, the 7-year went from 3.92 to 4.06, and the 1-year rose from 3.59 to 3.66. Even the shortest maturities saw small gains, with the 4-week rate ticking up to 3.76 from 3.75 last week.

Looking back 30 days to late January, the entire curve has shifted upward, though the increases have been more modest. The 2-year has risen 23 basis points since then, moving from 3.53 to 3.76. The 3-year climbed from 3.63 to 3.75, a gain of 12 basis points. The 5-year went from 3.80 to 3.88 over the same period. Longer maturities showed smaller monthly moves, with the 10-year rising only 3 basis points and the 30-year adding just 3 basis points since late January.

The yield curve remains inverted between the 10-year and 2-year segments, sitting at 51 basis points of inversion compared to 56 basis points one week ago. This inversion has narrowed slightly as shorter-term rates have risen more sharply than the 10-year in recent days. The 20-year and 30-year yields are nearly identical at 4.86 and 4.88, showing minimal difference between those two maturities. The 2-year at 3.76 sits above the 1-year at 3.66, indicating the inversion extends further down the curve as well.