Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield stands at 4.72 percent today, down from 4.77 percent on Friday and up from 4.70 percent one week ago. The long end of the curve has softened considerably since Friday's close, with the 30-year shedding five one-hundredths of a percent in that session. Looking at the weekly comparison, the 30-year has climbed two one-hundredths of a percent since Monday of last week, showing modest upward pressure over the longer term.

Looking across the rest of the yield curve, most maturities shifted lower today compared to Friday, with the steepest declines appearing at the long end. The 20-year dropped four one-hundredths to 4.70 percent, the 10-year fell three one-hundredths to 4.12 percent, and the 7-year declined three one-hundredths to 3.90 percent. The short end saw more modest movement, with the 3-month rising two one-hundredths to 3.71 percent and the 6-month ticking up two one-hundredths to 3.68 percent. Compared to one week ago, the 2-year has climbed nine one-hundredths to 3.56 percent, the 5-year has risen nine one-hundredths to 3.71 percent, and the 10-year has moved up seven one-hundredths to 4.12 percent.

Over the past 30 days, the curve has tilted downward at the long end while moving higher at the short end. The 10-year has declined ten one-hundredths from 4.22 percent to 4.12 percent, the 20-year has fallen five one-hundredths from 4.75 percent, and the 30-year has dropped eight one-hundredths from 4.80 percent. In contrast, the 6-month has risen six one-hundredths to 3.68 percent, the 1-year has climbed four one-hundredths to 3.56 percent, and the 5-year has fallen eleven one-hundredths to 3.71 percent. The 3-year has declined eight one-hundredths from its level one month ago, sitting now at 3.58 percent.

The yield curve remains inverted in certain segments today, with the 2-year at 3.56 percent sitting above the 3-year at 3.58 percent, which itself sits below the 5-year at 3.71 percent. The curve then climbs steadily from the 5-year through the 30-year, creating a normal upward slope in the longer maturities. Comparing this pattern to one week ago, when the 2-year was at 3.47 percent and the 5-year at 3.62 percent, the inversion between these two maturities has become more pronounced. Over the past month, the curve has flattened at the long end, with the 30-year and 10-year both moving lower while shorter maturities have generally moved higher, compressing the overall spread between the 2-year and 30-year from around 1.24 percent one month ago to around 1.16 percent today.