Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 4.77 percent Friday, up 13 basis points from last Friday when it sat at 4.64 percent. This long-term rate edged higher again after ticking up from 4.74 percent Thursday, continuing a steady climb that has pushed it well above last week's level. The 20-year maturity also moved higher to 4.74 percent, gaining 17 basis points over the week and standing just 3 basis points below the 30-year rate. Both long-dated yields have climbed meaningfully since the start of the month, with the 30-year rising from levels near 4.64 percent to approach 4.78 percent intraday.

The broader curve shifted higher across most maturities compared to last Friday. The 10-year yield reached 4.15 percent, up 18 basis points from 3.97 percent a week earlier. The 7-year climbed to 3.93 percent from 3.72 percent, an increase of 21 basis points. Even the shorter end of the curve moved up, with the 2-year reaching 3.56 percent versus 3.38 percent last Friday, a rise of 18 basis points. The 5-year ticked up to 3.72 percent from 3.51 percent, gaining 21 basis points. Near-term rates were relatively stable, with the 3-month holding at 3.69 percent and the 1-month at 3.75 percent, each moving up just 1 basis point from last week.

Looking back over the past month, the curve has undergone notable shifts. The 30-year has declined 5 basis points from 4.82 percent in late January, while the 10-year fell 9 basis points from 4.24 percent. The 20-year also moved lower by 4 basis points over the month. However, the shorter end of the curve tells a different story. The 2-year has climbed 16 basis points from 3.40 percent a month ago, and the 1-year rose 13 basis points from 3.42 percent. The 5-year is 12 basis points higher than its level 30 days ago. The 3-month rate has barely budged, holding near 3.70 percent both then and now.

The curve has flattened significantly when comparing today to both last week and a month ago. Last Friday the 2-year and 10-year were separated by 59 basis points, but that gap has compressed to just 59 basis points this week. The front of the curve has steepened dramatically over the month. Four weeks ago, the 3-month yield sat 15 basis points above the 1-year, creating an inversion, but now the 3-month at 3.69 percent has slipped below the 1-year at 3.55 percent. The middle of the curve remains inverted, with the 3-year at 3.59 percent just above the 10-year at 4.15 percent, though this inversion has narrowed from 85 basis points a month ago to 56 basis points today. Long yields above 4.70 percent at the 20 and 30-year maturities continue to anchor the curve's steep back end.