Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury rate finished Thursday at 4.74 percent, up seven hundredths of a percent from last Thursday when it closed at 4.67 percent. This long-end rate has been climbing steadily throughout the week, adding three hundredths yesterday and another four hundredths today. The 10-year rate, a key benchmark for mortgage pricing and other lending standards, came in at 4.13 percent. The move from last week's 4.02 percent puts the 10-year up eleven hundredths of a percent in just seven days.

Rates moved higher across the entire curve today compared to last Thursday. The 2-year note rose to 3.57 percent, fifteen hundredths above the 3.42 percent from a week ago. The 5-year climbed fifteen hundredths over the same period, reaching 3.72 percent today against 3.57 percent last week. Even the shortest maturities edged up, with the 3-month bill moving from 3.68 to 3.70 percent and the 6-month note rising from 3.61 to 3.68 percent. The longer tenors also gained ground, with the 20-year rate increasing from 4.60 to 4.71 percent over the week.

Looking back thirty days to late January, the picture reverses significantly. The 30-year rate at that time sat at 4.84 percent, meaning it has dropped ten hundredths over the past month. The 10-year has fallen even more, declining thirteen hundredths from 4.26 percent to today's 4.13 percent. The 7-year and 5-year both dropped thirteen hundredths, with the 7-year now at 3.92 percent versus 4.05 percent a month ago and the 5-year at 3.72 percent against 3.85 percent previously. The short end shows a different pattern, with the 3-month rate unchanged at 3.71 percent over the month and the 6-month holding steady at 3.61 percent. The 2-year has actually fallen four hundredths from 3.61 percent one month ago to its current 3.57 percent level.

The curve has steepened notably this week as rates moved higher across all maturities. The 2-year through 7-year segment saw the biggest weekly increases, jumping thirteen to fifteen hundredths. This contrasts sharply with the monthly trend, where the long end of the curve has shifted lower by ten to thirteen hundredths while short-term rates barely moved. The curve remains inverted between the 1-year and 2-year maturities, with the 2-year sitting two hundredths below the 1-year rate, though this inversion has narrowed from yesterday's three hundredth gap.