Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield came in at 4.72 percent on Wednesday. That marks a move higher compared to last week, when the same maturity sat at 4.70 percent. The long end of the market has seen a pickup in yields over the past week, with investors demanding slightly more return to hold the longest-dated bonds.

The broader curve shifted higher across most maturities compared to last week. The 2-year yield climbed from 3.45 percent to 3.54 percent, one of the bigger moves in the short end. Yields from 3 months through 30 years all finished higher than where they were a week ago, though the shorter durations like 4-month and 6-month were relatively steady. The 10-year moved from 4.05 percent to 4.09 percent, and the 20-year edged up to 4.67 percent from 4.63 percent last Wednesday.

Looking back a month, the picture is quite different. The 30-year has dropped from 4.87 percent in late January to 4.72 percent today. The 10-year has fallen from 4.26 percent to 4.09 percent over the same span. Even the 5-year and 7-year have moved lower by 16 basis points and 17 basis points respectively. The short end tells a different story though, with the 2-year actually ticking higher from 3.60 percent a month ago to 3.54 percent today.

The curve has steepened compared to both last week and 30 days ago. The gap between 2-year and 30-year yields has widened, suggesting the longer end of the curve has been under relative selling pressure. A month ago the curve was inverted at the very front end, with the 3-month yield above the 2-year. That inversion has unwound, and the entire curve from 3 months on out now slopes upward. The 10-year sits comfortably above the 2-year, and the spread between short and long maturities has grown since last week.