Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield held steady at 4.70 percent on Tuesday, marking no change from the previous session and matching where it stood one week ago. Investors showed renewed appetite for long-term bonds over the past month, pushing the benchmark rate meaningfully lower compared to late January when it hovered near 4.91 percent. The 20-year yield also appeared on Tuesday's board at 4.65 percent, up slightly from 4.63 percent last Tuesday.

Yields moved higher across the middle and longer portions of the curve compared to one week ago. The 10-year rate climbed to 4.06 percent from 4.04 percent, while the 7-year reached 3.83 percent against 3.81 percent the prior Tuesday. The 5-year ticked up to 3.63 percent from 3.61 percent, and both the 3-year and 2-year rose more noticeably to 3.50 percent and 3.51 percent respectively from 3.47 percent and 3.43 percent. Shorter maturities also moved upward, with the 1-year reaching 3.55 percent and the 6-month at 3.68 percent, each 3 and 6 hundredths higher than last Tuesday.

The curve has shifted substantially over the past 30 days, with long-term rates dropping far more than short-term rates. The 30-year has fallen 21 hundredths since late January, the 20-year has declined 22 hundredths, and the 10-year has dropped 24 hundredths over the same span. The 7-year and 5-year similarly fell by 25 and 23 hundredths respectively. In contrast, shorter maturities showed much smaller moves, with the 2-year down just 9 hundredths, the 1-year down 2 hundredths, and the 6-month actually rising 7 hundredths higher over the month.

The curve remains inverted between the 2-year and 5-year sections, though that inversion has narrowed slightly from 18 hundredths last week to 12 hundredths on Tuesday. The front end between the 4-week and 1-year has reverted to a normal upward slope after being inverted last week. Comparing the shape to one month ago, the curve has steepened considerably as long-term yields fell dramatically while short-term rates barely budged or moved higher.