Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield finished at 4.70% on Tuesday, up slightly from 4.68% one week ago. The 10-year yield settled at 4.04%, just one basis point lower than last week's 4.05%. These two key long-term rates showed relatively modest movement over the past seven days, with the 30-year inching higher while the 10-year dipped marginally.

Looking at the broader curve, most maturities held steady compared to last week. The 6-month rate rose to 3.62% from 3.59%, and the 1-year climbed to 3.52% from 3.48%. The 5-year and 7-year both dipped slightly, while the 2-year remained unchanged at 3.43%. The short end of the curve showed the most movement, with the 6-week rate ticking up to 3.75% and the 2-month rate steady at 3.73%.

Over the past month, the curve has shifted notably lower across most maturities. The 5-year, 7-year, 10-year, and 20-year all declined by 14 basis points, dropping to 3.61%, 3.81%, 4.04%, and 4.63% respectively. The 30-year fell 13 basis points to 4.70%, while the 2-year and 3-year each declined by 10 basis points. The short end of the curve moved in the opposite direction, with the 2-month and 4-month rates rising by 7 basis points each.

The curve has steepened considerably over the past month. The spread between the 2-year and 10-year has widened from a negative 8 basis points one month ago to a positive 61 basis points today, representing a dramatic 69 basis point shift. The 10-year to 30-year spread has narrowed slightly, from 65 basis points a month ago to 66 basis points today. Compared to last week, the curve remains roughly parallel but has shifted to a more normal upward slope, with longer maturities now offering higher yields than shorter ones across the board.