Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield settled at 4.70 today, down 2 basis points from last Thursday when it stood at 4.72. The yield held steady yesterday at 4.71. Most maturities across the curve moved lower this week, with the 10-year holding at 4.08, while intermediate maturities like the 5-year and 7-year dipped to 3.65 and 3.85 respectively.

Looking at the broader curve compared to last week, most maturities shifted downward. The 20-year yield fell to 4.64 from 4.68, representing the biggest weekly decline among the longer maturities. The 10-year and 7-year each dropped 1 basis point. In contrast, shorter-term rates moved higher, with the 1-year climbing to 3.50 from 3.45, a 5 basis point increase, while the 6-month edged up to 3.60 from 3.58.

The curve has flattened notably over the past month as longer-term yields declined more than shorter-term rates. The 30-year yield dropped 15 basis points from 4.85 a month ago to today's 4.70, while the 10-year fell 11 basis points over the same period. The 5-year and 7-year each fell roughly 9 to 10 basis points. The 2-year moved down only 2 basis points to 3.47, while the 1-year actually rose 2 basis points over the month.

The curve remains inverted, with the 10-year yield at 4.08 sitting above the 3-month rate of 3.69. The spread between the 2-year and 10-year stands at about 61 basis points, roughly unchanged from last week's 62 basis point inversion but narrower than the 70 basis point inversion observed a month ago.