Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield came in at 4.71 today, climbing from yesterday's 4.68. That's notably lower than the 4.82 posted one week ago, marking a meaningful week-over-week decline for the longest maturity. The yield has also softened compared to where it stood in early January at 4.82. This longer-term rate has been trending downward over the past week, providing some relief for borrowers locking in long-term financing costs.

Looking at the broader curve, rates moved higher across most maturities from yesterday to today, with the 2-year up from 3.43 to 3.47, the 5-year rising from 3.63 to 3.66, and the 10-year climbing from 4.05 to 4.09. The short end saw modest declines, with the 4-week rate ticking down from 3.72 to 3.71 and the 6-week dropping from 3.75 to 3.74. Comparing to last week, the middle to longer portion of the curve shows significant improvement, with the 10-year at 4.09 versus 4.18, the 20-year at 4.65 versus 4.76, and the 30-year at 4.71 versus 4.82. The 2-year actually fell from 3.52 to 3.47 over the week.

Over the past 30 days, the curve has shifted notably. The shortest maturities have moved higher, with the 6-week rising from 3.69 to 3.74 and the 2-month climbing from 3.60 to 3.73. The 3-month ticked up from 3.62 to 3.70 over the month. Further out, the 5-year dropped from 3.70 to 3.66, the 7-year fell from 3.91 to 3.86, and the 10-year declined from 4.15 to 4.09. The longer maturities show clearer easing, with the 20-year moving from 4.76 to 4.65 and the 30-year dropping from 4.82 to 4.71.

The yield curve today shows a gradual upward slope from the 3-month at 3.70 through the 30-year at 4.71. The short end is relatively flat, with the 4-week at 3.71, the 6-week at 3.74, and the 2-month at 3.73. The curve steepens more noticeably in the middle and long portions. Compared to last week, the entire curve has shifted lower overall, with longer maturities showing the most pronounced decline. Over the past month, the curve has flattened, as short-term rates moved higher while longer-term rates moved lower, narrowing the spread between the shortest and longest maturities.