Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield fell to 4.69 percent Friday, down from 4.85 percent a week earlier. This represents the most significant weekly move among the long end of the curve, reflecting a notable decline in investor expectations for longer-term rates. The yield has trended lower over the past several sessions, moving away from the levels seen at the start of the month.

Across the broader curve, most maturities moved lower compared to last Friday. The 10-year yield dropped to 4.04 percent from 4.22 percent, while the 7-year fell to 3.81 percent from 3.98 percent. The 5-year rate decreased to 3.61 percent from 3.76 percent. Even the shorter maturities showed declines, with the 2-year yield at 3.40 percent compared to 3.50 percent last week and the 1-year at 3.42 percent versus 3.45 percent previously. The 3-month and 6-month bills held relatively steady, with the 3-month at 3.68 percent and the 6-month at 3.59 percent.

Looking at changes over the past month, the curve has shifted downward in most segments. The 10-year yield has dropped to 4.04 percent from 4.19 percent, and the 5-year has declined to 3.61 percent from 3.74 percent. The 2-year moved to 3.40 percent from 3.47 percent. However, the longer maturities showed much smaller movement, with the 20-year only decreasing to 4.64 percent from 4.81 percent and the 30-year at 4.69 percent versus 4.86 percent a month ago. The short end of the curve has been essentially flat over the month, as the 3-month and 6-month bills remain near their levels from early January.

The yield curve maintained its normal upward slope, with no inversions present at any point along the curve. The spread between the 2-year and 10-year widened slightly compared to last week, while the month-over-month comparison shows the middle part of the curve has experienced more downward pressure than either end. The shape has become somewhat steeper at the short end while remaining relatively unchanged at the long end, creating a more pronounced upward slope in the intermediate section between 2 and 10 years.