Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield stood at 4.90 percent on Tuesday, holding steady from Monday but climbing higher compared to last week when it sat at 4.83 percent. This means longer-term borrowing costs are slightly elevated compared to where they were a week ago. Investors holding long-duration bonds have seen the value of their holdings decline modestly as yields rose during this period.

The yield curve showed movement across most maturities over the past week. Short-term rates like the 4-week yield actually declined from 3.77 percent to 3.72 percent, while the 1-year rate dipped from 3.50 to 3.49 percent. On the other end, the 10-year rose from 4.24 to 4.28 percent and the 20-year climbed from 4.79 to 4.85 percent. Most segments of the curve shifted higher, with longer maturities generally seeing bigger increases than shorter ones.

Looking back over the past month, rates have moved higher across the board. The 30-year is now at 4.90 percent compared to 4.83 percent four weeks ago. The 10-year has risen from 4.18 to 4.28 percent, and the 5-year has climbed from 3.72 to 3.83 percent. Even shorter maturities like the 2-year have ticked up from 3.48 to 3.57 percent. The biggest monthly moves were concentrated in the 5-year through 10-year portion of the curve, where rates climbed by 11 basis points or more.

The curve remains inverted in the middle, with the 2-year at 3.57 percent sitting above the 1-year at 3.49 percent, and the 5-year at 3.83 percent above the 3-year at 3.64 percent. Over the past week, the inversion between the 2-year and 3-year has deepened slightly. The longer end of the curve has steepened, with the spread between the 10-year and 30-year widening from just 3 basis points last week to 6 basis points this week. A month ago, the 10-year was 4.18 percent, so it has climbed 10 basis points higher, showing a clear upward shift across the entire curve over the past 30 days.