Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield rose to 4.9% on Monday, up from 4.8% one week ago, marking one of the larger weekly increases at the long end of the curve. This extended the recent climb that has pushed the 30-year rate to its highest level in recent trading sessions. The 20-year yield also moved higher, reaching 4.85% compared to 4.75% last Monday, a gain of 10 basis points over the week. Together, these long maturity rates have climbed noticeably and now sit at elevated levels compared to where they started the year.

The broader curve shifted upward this week, with yields moving higher across most maturities. The 10-year rate climbed to 4.29% from 4.22% last Monday, while the 7-year reached 4.05% versus 4.02% the prior week. The 5-year moved up modestly to 3.83% from 3.82%, and the 2-year ticked higher at 3.57% compared to 3.56%. The 1-year rate bucked the trend and actually declined slightly to 3.49% from 3.52%, while the 3-month rate edged up to 3.69% from 3.67%. Short-term rates at the very front end held steady, with the 4-week rate remaining at 3.72%.

Looking back over the past month, the curve has shifted higher at most maturities, with middle and longer-term rates showing the most pronounced moves. The 10-year has climbed 12 basis points from 4.17% to 4.29%, and the 5-year rose to 3.83% from 3.71%, also a 12 basis point increase. The 2-year moved from 3.44% to 3.57%, representing a 13 basis point gain over 30 days. The 7-year climbed to 4.05% from 3.93%, and the 3-year reached 3.64% from 3.56%. The 30-year moved from 4.84% to its current 4.9%, while the 20-year shifted to 4.85% from 4.78%. Only the 1-year rate has declined over the month, falling to 3.49% from 3.53%.

The curve has steepened considerably this week as longer-term rates climbed faster than shorter-term ones. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year widened to 72 basis points from 66 basis points last Monday, with both endpoints rising but the long end moving more. The 30-year to 2-year spread also widened, reflecting the strong upward pressure at the long end. Compared to a month ago, the steepening is even more apparent, with the 10-year to 2-year spread expanding from 73 basis points to the current 72 basis points. The curve remains in a normal upward-sloping shape throughout, with no inversions present at any maturity pairing.