Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield ended the week at 4.82 percent, holding near the same level as last Friday when it sat at 4.83 percent. This long-term rate has remained relatively stable over the past seven days, showing little movement even as shorter maturities shifted. The yield has stayed in a narrow range, reflecting continued uncertainty about the broader economic outlook and how the Federal Reserve might adjust its approach to interest rates in coming months.

The Treasury curve shifted higher across most maturities compared to where rates stood one week ago. The 2-month rate climbed to 3.72 from 3.68, while the 3-month rate moved to 3.70 from 3.67. The 4-week rate rose to 3.78, up from 3.75 a week earlier. These shorter-term rates moved higher over the week, while longer maturities like the 10-year and 20-year stayed flat, leaving the middle part of the curve with modest gains of 1 to 2 basis points.

Looking back over the past month, the curve has tilted more steeply in the middle section. Rates from 2 years out to 7 years climbed between 8 and 9 basis points, with the 3-year at 3.67 and the 5-year at 3.84 showing the most pronounced moves. The 10-year rose to 4.24 from 4.19, a gain of 5 basis points. However, the longest maturities moved in the opposite direction, with the 20-year dropping to 4.78 from 4.82 and the 30-year slipping to 4.82 from 4.85. This divergence between the belly of the curve and the long end stands out as the most notable pattern over the 30-day window.

The curve continues to show an unusual shape when comparing different maturity segments. The shortest maturities in the 4-week to 3-month range sit between 3.70 and 3.78, while the 1-year rate at 3.53 sits below those levels, creating an inverted relationship at the very front end. The curve then climbs steadily through the middle maturities, with the 30-year at 4.82 sitting well above where shorter rates traded a year ago. This steep slope in the middle portion of the curve is more pronounced than it was a week ago and represents a meaningful shift from a month earlier when the 2-year through 7-year segment sat closer to the short end of the curve.