Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield rose to 4.84 percent Thursday, up from 4.79 percent a week earlier. This marks a notable shift for the longest maturity, which has climbed five basis points over the past week. The 20-year yield also moved higher to 4.79 percent from 4.74 percent last Thursday. Short-term bills saw mixed movement, with the 4-week rate jumping to 3.79 percent from 3.75 percent while the 6-week held steady at 3.71 percent.

Across the broader curve, most maturities climbed higher compared to last week. The 10-year yield climbed to 4.26 percent from 4.17 percent, a meaningful gain at the benchmark maturity. The 5-year moved to 3.85 percent versus 3.77 percent, and the 2-year rose to 3.61 percent from 3.56 percent. The middle part of the curve showed strength, with the 3-year at 3.68 percent and 7-year at 4.05 percent, both higher than Thursday of last week.

Looking at the past month, the curve has steepened in notable ways. The 10-year has climbed to 4.26 percent from 4.14 percent, a substantial twelve basis point increase over thirty days. The 2-year jumped to 3.61 percent from 3.52 percent, and the 5-year rose to 3.85 percent from 3.72 percent. Near the front end, the 1-year declined to 3.53 percent from 3.56 percent, while the 3-month and 6-month maturities are little changed over the month. The longer end from 10 years out shows consistent upward movement.

The yield curve remains inverted through the 2-year maturity, with that rate below the 10-year. This inversion has actually widened slightly compared to last week. The 10-year and 30-year spread has compressed, with the 30-year now only five basis points higher than the 10-year, narrower than the eight basis point gap from last Thursday. The curve from the 10-year through 20-year is relatively flat, then rises more steeply from the 20-year to 30-year. Compared to a month ago, the entire middle portion from 2-year through 7-year has shifted higher, while the very shortest maturities are little changed or slightly lower.