Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 4.83 percent Monday, down slightly from 4.85 percent one week ago. That's a modest retreat for the longest maturity after three consecutive weeks of steady climbing. The weekly decline marks a reversal from the persistent upward drift that has characterized long-term rates recently.

Rates shifted higher across most of the curve compared to last week. The 2-year maturity moved from 3.46 percent to 3.54 percent, while the 5-year climbed to 3.77 percent from 3.71 percent. The 10-year edged up to 4.19 percent, and the 7-year reached 3.97 percent. Meanwhile, longer maturities like the 20-year and 30-year ticked lower, with the 20-year falling to 4.78 percent. Short-term rates between 1 and 4 months all rose modestly, pushing the front end of the curve higher.

Looking back one month, rates have generally moved higher across most maturities. The 2-year sits at 3.54 percent versus 3.54 percent a month ago, essentially unchanged. But the 10-year has climbed from 4.09 percent to 4.19 percent over the same period. The 5-year rose to 3.77 percent from 3.67 percent, and the 7-year moved to 3.97 percent from 3.86 percent. The 30-year has climbed from 4.74 percent to 4.83 percent over the past month, while short-term rates like the 3-month rose to 3.67 percent from 3.81 percent.

The yield curve remains upward sloping, with no inversions between any maturities. The gap between the 2-year and 10-year stands at roughly 65 basis points, narrower than the 71 basis points observed last week but wider than the 55 basis points seen a month ago. This suggests the curve has been steepening in recent weeks after flattening through December.