Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 4.82 percent on Wednesday, a small move lower compared to last week when it sat at 4.84 percent. This headline rate has held relatively steady near that level since the turn of the year, with yesterday's reading at 4.86 percent marking the recent high point. The long end of the curve has shown little day-to-day movement this week, as investors in longer-term bonds have seen minimal price changes overall. The 30-year remains significantly higher than where it traded a month ago in late November.

Yields fell slightly across most maturities on Wednesday. The 10-year dropped to 4.15 percent from 4.18 percent a week ago, while the 5-year fell to 3.70 percent compared to 3.73 percent last week. The 2-year rate held steady at 3.47 percent, matching where it was a week earlier. At the very short end, the 4-week rate ticked down to 3.70 percent from 3.74 percent last Wednesday. Most segments of the curve are trading a few hundredths lower than they were a week ago, with declines ranging from flat to about three hundredths depending on the maturity.

Looking back over the past month, the curve has shifted markedly higher. The 30-year has climbed from 4.64 percent to its current 4.82 percent, while the 10-year has risen from 4.00 percent. The most dramatic moves have come in the 20-year segment, which moved from 4.60 percent to 4.76 percent over the same span. Short-term rates tell a different story. The 2-year has barely moved, ticking up only two hundredths from 3.45 percent, and the 3-month rate sits at 3.62 percent, down from 3.92 percent a month ago. Bills and very short maturities have also come down meaningfully since late November, with the 4-week rate dropping from 4.06 percent.

The curve has steepened noticeably over the past month as longer-term rates climbed while short-term rates declined or held steady. Currently, the 4-week through 6-month segments sit below the 1-year maturity, creating a brief inversion in that part of the curve. Beyond one year, yields increase steadily with maturity, with the 30-year at 4.82 percent standing above the 10-year at 4.15 percent. This overall shape is similar to last week, though the curve has flattened slightly as the declines at the long end were modest compared to the prior month's sharper moves higher in those same segments.